Resistance Axis Military Supremacy

Update June 18, 2024

Resistance Axis ISR Supremacy

As stated in Why The West Can’t Win,[i] the Axis of Resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, Popular Mobilization Units – Iraq) has military supremacy in Southwest Asia; today there is further confirmation of this fact.

On June 18, 2024, Hezbollah released a 10-minute aerial reconnaissance video of northern Israel, covering in great detail military bases, aerial defense systems, military industry plants, civilian infrastructure and residential areas. Video even showed in detail the submarine pier in Haifa port.

https://x.com/AlMayadeenNews/status/1803043824463187978

The drone Hudhud which did the surveillance returned to Lebanon unscathed. 

Implications: 

1.      Hezbollah has complete ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capability.

2.      Hezbollah has targeting information on all valuable Israeli assets. 

3.      Hezbollah has the capability to destroy any of these targets.

4.      Supremacy of asymmetric ISR: These systems typically cost billions of dollars, because a number of specialized military satellites are needed to achieve this capability. Resistance Axis has achieved same results at less than 0.01% of the cost, by using cheap drones with technology that is capable of evading US/Israeli aerial defense systems. 

5.      Despite billions of dollars in U.S. and Israeli ISR, they cannot achieve the same results because all military assets of the Resistance Axis are buried tens of meters underground. 

Why show this ISR capability now?

Hezbollah and all Resistance Axis members rarely divulge their capabilities prior to using them, so why did Hezbollah expose this capability today?

To understand this, we must first go to the Quran, Surat Al-Mā'idah, Ayat 32:

مِنْ أَجْلِ ذَٰلِكَ كَتَبْنَا عَلَىٰ بَنِي إِسْرَائِيلَ أَنَّهُ مَن قَتَلَ نَفْسًا بِغَيْرِ نَفْسٍ أَوْ فَسَادٍ فِي الْأَرْضِ فَكَأَنَّمَا قَتَلَ النَّاسَ جَمِيعًا وَمَنْ أَحْيَاهَا فَكَأَنَّمَا أَحْيَا النَّاسَ جَمِيعًا ۚ وَلَقَدْ جَاءَتْهُمْ رُسُلُنَا بِالْبَيِّنَاتِ ثُمَّ إِنَّ كَثِيرًا مِّنْهُم بَعْدَ ذَٰلِكَ فِي الْأَرْضِ لَمُسْرِفُونَ 

Because of that, We decreed upon the Children of Israel that whoever kills a soul unless for a soul or for corruption [done] in the land - it is as if he had slain mankind entirely. And whoever saves one - it is as if he had saved mankind entirely. And our messengers had certainly come to them with clear proofs. Then indeed many of them, [even] after that, throughout the land, were transgressors.

Any "Great War" to put an end to the Jewish colony will result in the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians. Thus, despite the Resistance Axis having had military supremacy for several years now, they cannot initiate the “Great War”, as whoever initiates such a war will be held responsible for the deaths of innocent civilians on Judgement Day.

Accordingly, the strategy adopted by Resistance Axis in the ongoing war since October 7, 2023 was explained by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah early in the war, using analogy of a boxing match:

Victory will be achieved by points not by knockout

What is implied is that the Resistance Axis has opted for a long duration attrition war, and will escalate sufficiently to continuously increase pressure on Israel, but without triggering an all-out war. The pressure over a long enough period would lead to a steady weakening of Israel, compounding internal problems and exposing to Jewish settlers the non-viability of the colony.

Events during the past nine months, prove the validity of this strategy. The Israeli army having been defeated on multiple fronts:

·        Gaza front: 500,000 strong army unable to subdue a popular resistance in a 365km2 enclave that has been under siege for over 15 years.

·        Lebanon front: Hezbollah has effectively destroyed land based ISR, killed and wounded hundreds of Israeli soldiers.

·        Red Sea front: The Israel + NATO alliance has been unable to open sea lanes of communication to Eilat Port through the Red Sea.

·        Iran front: Israel + NATO were unable to prevent Iranian missiles from hitting their targets.

Realizing that for a settler colony, its viability is determined by its overwhelming military supremacy versus the region where it is implanted. Not only has it been exposed that Israel no longer has military supremacy in the region, but rather that military supremacy is with its enemies i.e. the Resistance Axis. It is not surprising therefore to witness increasing political problems within the political leadership, problems between the army leadership and the government, between significant segments of the population and the government, and most importantly the increasing reverse migration from Israel.

Thus, to answer the question: Why is Hezbollah showing this ISR capability now?

The reasons are twofold:

1.      Part of the policy of steady increase in pressure on the Israeli government, military and settler community.

2.      To avoid an all-out war, as it makes clear to the Israeli government and the military leadership, the catastrophic consequences of launching an all-out war on Hezbollah

Fadi Lama is author of WHY THE WEST CAN’T WIN: From Bretton Woods to a Multipolar World.

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[i] WHY THE WEST CAN’T WIN: From Bretton Woods to a Multipolar World, Fadi Lama, Clarity Press, May 1, 2023